The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
An essential book for anyone concerned with "big data" or any aspect of science of forecasting. Silver casts an experienced (and somewhat jaundiced) eye over a range of commonly-encountered forecasts, including politics (his own main area), poker, finance, and climate change. In each area he manages both to convince that forecasts can be made to good effect -- and to demolish many of the current practices one finds in these areas. On the way he discusses Bayesian statistics, the psychology of a good forecaster (be a "fox," not a "hedgehog"), how to spot bias, and gives some critical advice that would be of useful to anyone looking to apply such techniques. Should be required reading for all science PhD students.
5/5. Finished 02 December 2013.
(Originally published on Goodreads.)